This has been an enormously intense period in Westminster. At the time of writing this article the “meaningful vote” on the Brexit Withdrawal agreement has still not happened. I have thought long and hard about the vote and what may lie ahead.
Many constituents have written to me with their views, thank you. Some have asked me to support the campaign for a second referendum. I do not currently believe that this is the best way forward. In the 2016 referendum, people were told that the result would be respected. I am concerned that a second referendum would be even more divisive and no more decisive.
Some constituents have suggested we should walk away and leave the EU without any Withdrawal Agreement or any commitment on UK/EU trade negotiations. However, the EU is our largest trading partner and many people's jobs and livelihoods depend on the UK and EU countries continuing to have an amicable and strong relationship. Leaving with "no deal" brings huge uncertainties.
Some constituents suggest that we should try to mirror the relationship that the EU has with Norway or Canada. Neither option addresses our country's unique position. The Norway option leaves us as a rule taker on services as well as goods. In my experience, the UK and EU often have differing priorities for services regulation due to the UK's high level of service-related exports. The Norway model does not fit the UK well unless a special relationship on services can be negotiated. A Canada version is not acceptable since it will result in hard borders, either with the Irish Republic or between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. It also does not provide the frictionless trade that is necessary to protect our successful manufacturing businesses. This is why I have always said that the best approach is to seek out a bespoke deal.
Some constituents have raised concerns about the Northern Ireland "backstop" and whether it may become permanent. Both the UK and the EU have committed that the backstop should not become permanent. To me this is a legal risk not a practical risk since it is in neither side's interest for this to happen and the backstop would be challenged in the courts.
Regarding the Withdrawal Agreement, this covers the immediate future. It allows for citizens' rights to be protected and for businesses trading with the EU to have a transition period with no 'cliff edges'. The "Future Framework" declaration regarding the long-term relationship is not yet a full Trade Agreement. However, it does set out the main parameters of what is clearly the deepest Trade Agreement that the EU has ever offered.
It seems to me we have three options: a "no deal Brexit", a second referendum or supporting the negotiated package. I believe the first two options carry considerable risks to jobs and livelihoods. I am therefore minded to support the negotiated package when it comes to the House of Commons for a vote.
By the time this you read this article the vote will probably be long over and politics will have moved on.
It has been lovely to get away from Westminster and for some special events in Chelmsford. Many thanks to the 100 volunteers who were such good company when I joined them for the all night the “sleep-out” raising money for CHESS Homeless in the Cathedral grounds and to those who arranged the beautiful Christmas Carol service which brought together deaf children and adults from all over Essex. I also put on boots and waterproofs to join the Lord Lieutenant, Mayor, Deputy Mayor and students from Thritwood College planting a new woodland area in Admirals Park as part of the Queen’ Commonwealth Canopy project. This will create a new networks of forests and conservation projects across the world.
